How Hamilton Explains This Lousy Twins Season

In the midst of one of the most disappointing Twins seasons in memory, it's natural to look around for something, anything, to explain or distract from what promises to be a long, hard campaign.

That's where pulitizer-winning, grammy-winning, genius-crafted (even if said genius is a Yankees fan), best-selling, award-monopolizing musical Hamilton comes in. Sure you can listen to it and distract yourself from the announcement of yet another dropped fly ball, blown lead, or ill-timed strike out. But you can also catch a glimpse of what how it might feel and what can still be done this year.

My favorite example of Hamilton as metaphor for the Twins Season comes from the voice of George Washington in his first appearance on stage (starting at 0:52)

So how does this explain...and offer a possible solution to the Twins situation? I'm glad you asked

We are outgunned (witness the Pitching); outmanned (witness the ill-timed injuries); outnumbered (witness the teams lack of statistical acumen); outplanned (witness seemingly every decision that the manager or front office has made in the past six months).

Still, we have model of a "modern major (field) general", the "venerated...veteran" Joe Mauer, who must be dumbstruck that just as he gets back into form, the entire squad built to support him has gotten blown into smithereens. The players he could be leading "keep retreating", regressing in their performance or being sent back down to Rochester to work out their kinks. And great as Joe has been, he "cannot be everywhere at once people", and remains: outgunned, outmanned, outnumbered, outplanned.

While some, including me, have long preached patience, confidence and trust in that the same tactics that led to past success, it may be time to stop admiring "how [we] fire...from a distance" and just see "how things work out" and try something different.

Mauer (L) and an unnamed rookie (R)
Or Christopher Jackson (L) and Lin Manuel Miranda (R)

So, Mauer needs a "right hand" man, a Hamilton to his Washington. Someone fearless enough to stick it out through the problems, and get aggressive now and then. Someone who is optimistic, ready to "rise up", and capable of acknowledging that doing the same thing over and over can end your career, but adapting and adjusting is what's necessary to survive. Put another way, in the big leagues: "dying is easy, living is harder."

We can't expect that the "right hand man" is going to come galloping to our rescue from outside the organization. Mauer and company can do battle on the field, but they're going to have to make do with "what our Congress [aka the Twins Front Office] has promised". We can't beat other teams at their own games, but for all the rookies who rise up "young, scrappy, and hungry" we can't afford to "throw away their shot".

We are outgunned, outmanned: so whichever youngster is ready to step up, they can and should help to lead the way and promote the culture of winning with the fellow prospects who fought with them on the fields of Fort Meyers, Chattanooga and Rochester.

We are outnumbered, outplanned: but if you can adapt and bring in a few strong skills from outside the organization (maybe defensive metrics? maybe different attitudes about pitch selection) you can "master the element of surprise" and even if we lose the battle, we can win the war.

So, who is it going to be? Berrios? Sano? Buxton? Chargois? Any of them...all of them...because while our general might need a right hand man, there's more to it that one silver bullet, or one pump up song

The Promise of Players: A Blueprint to to Win the Game of Bases & Balls

'Tis the season for the best baseball minds (and me) in the Twinsblogosphere to offer their takes on what the local 9 ought to do to improve their roster. Using the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook as a guide, you take your best crack at improving the Twins. Many bloggers dig deep for undervalued gems, or carefully consider how to balance free agency with player development.

I choose an irrelevant theme and offer totally implausible pipe-dreams for about 1000 words.

Let's not mince words: the Twins are in trouble. Once a mighty force, feared throughout the land for their scrappiness and tenacity, the Twins have been brought to heel, defanged, and dismissed. They have bent the knee to the most powerful groups in the American League: Detroit, Boston, Tampa Bay and New York.

And that puts us exactly where we want to be.

King? Or Red Sock?

It may seem silly to think that a lowly group of bunglers like us--a group often looked at as mere comic relief--could put ourselves into a position of power any time in the near future. But if Game of Thrones has taught us anything (besides the fact that there's a whole lot of murder and nudity in George RR Martin's brain), it's that people without power can gain it very quickly provided they are willing to do a few slightly unscrupulous things.

Sure there may be some powerful people right now, but in George RR Martin's world, you're always just a boar hunt, lousy wedding reception or frozen-zombie attack away from being another corpse in the pile. The throne is won in the wheeling and dealing between the powerful and the (seemingly) powerless.

So, let's look at a few...guidelines...for how the Twins ought to behave if we want to improve our standing in this most dangerous game: the game of bases and balls!

Eddie Rosario in 2 Years

1. There are no "guests" or "squires" or "wards"...there are only prisoners
The biggest, strongest and most powerful lords of the land have a simple way to ensure loyalty: take a beloved child of minor houses into your home as a "ward" for several years. This ensures that minor houses don't rise up; if they do, you just slit the throat of your "ward" and they sit back down again. So the Twins may need to send some of their dearly beloved prospects off to more prominent places. Which is I suggest they trade Eddie Rosario and Jared Burton to Toronto for power throwing starter Marcus Stroman.

The Blue Jays have some solid pitching depth but are desperate to shore up second base. While they might find a shorter term solution elsewhere on the market, Rosario gives them someone to have for several years...of course, just because Rosario becomes their "ward" doesn't mean he actually cares for them, and when the time comes for the Twins to battle the Blue Jays for playoff position in a few years if he were to say, make errors in the field and betray Jose Bautista by decapitating him in the on-deck circle...well, we might be able to cut him in on a post-seasons hare.

2. Repairing your weaknesses is less important than exploiting the weaknesses of your rival
No house in the Game of Thrones universe thinks about what their rivals do well, they think about how to exploit their flaws be it hubris, wealth or insanity.

Okay Scott, we'll play your game

There's plenty of money flying around baseball, and sure the Twins have some of it, but not as much as other big name teams...so perhaps it would behoove us to use our rivals' wealth to our own gain. The Yankees are keen on splurging on Masahiro Tanaka? Let's up that bid by one dollar (a la that jerk on the Price is Right) until they dump 80 million. Scott Boras (the enemy of our enemy) needs a "mystery team" for upping the price on Stephen Drew or Suk-Min Yoon, we're happy to help. If played well, all of this costs us nothing and our rivals nearly everything. The bottom line is, it doesn't matter if we don't have money as long as our opponents spend it really, really badly.

3. A great sell-sword is preferable to a loyal knight.
Of course, getting our opponents to spend like idiots is even better if we spend what little money we do have really, really well.  Unfortunately, there are precious few pitchers who would pick Minnesota as a top destination, so our goal shouldn't just be to sign the best available, but those who have something to prove.

Think of it like this: we aren't looking for a brave and noble knight to carry our colors proudly or champion our side for the next decade; we're looking for someone who can keep us alive. So, much as we love brave Ser Liam and Ser Andrew we need someone who might make a difference.

Don't worry I have a clause prohibiting
Phil Hughes from doing this again...

They may not be loyal, but they're better than what we have. If they do well and we all get along we can If they abandon us or hear about better money elsewhere, so be it. If we find out that it's in our interest to sell their services elsewhere again, do it and do it fast.

So congratulations: Ser Josh Johnson (signed for 1 year, 9 Million) and Ser Phil Hughes (signed for 3 years 30 Million), you're both due golden opportunities.


4. Wars aren't won on the field, they're won by having the best set of counselors
As great as a good sell sword is, they can't do much of anything if you don't have the strategists and smarts to know what's worth doing and what's not. Without the right counselors you may well end up with a pot of gold poured on your head, or a smoke demon killing you.

(From L) Molina, Johnson, Kyle Gibson,  Santana
and Chavez discuss how to pitch the Yankees

For the Twins, this is even more important. With a young, inexperienced team it's important to surround our would-be-kings with people who know what it takes to lead: veterans with post-season/high performing experience. Recently, we haven't really done that, but that can be fixed by imprisoning a few people in nearby dungeons making some trades for long shot prospects. (sorry Ryan Doumit you've been traded to Seattle for LHPs Rusty Shellhorn and Roenis Elias and godspeed Kevin Corriea you've been traded to Colorado for SS Rosell Herrera and/or RHP Scott Oberg).

Now we can bring in what we need. A masterful caretaker catcher (Benjy Molina, 2 years 4.5/yr); a skilled warrior on his last legs...or arm as it were (Johan Santana, 1 year 5 M + playing/front office option); and a eunuch (Eric Chavez, 1 year 2 M). 

5. Witticisms win no wars, but they are fun.
Finally, we should say this: even with these changes the Twins will likely be below average, if not down right bad (just like life for most medieval houses no matter how conniving they try to be). That's why it's important to find little joys in life, like a wickedly funny dinner guest/prisoner/imp/mastermind/whoremonger.

Our Secret Weapon

So the natural result is that we should hire Peter Dinklage to be an assistant coach/honorary trash talker at all home games. It might seem like a terrible echo of baseball's sordid past with dwarves as mascots, but when you consider that this will probably cost about 3 million for just half a season of Dinklage related chicanery, it's a lot less cruel and a lot more like paying a man what he's worth.

Imagine the joy of having an in-character Dinklage razz rivals across the field ("I may not have a nose, but at least I don't have to catch the whiff of Adam Dunn's rancid stink"; "The wealth and the power the Yankees have will always make them a target. Fortunately, I always hit the targets I piss at.")

If I can paraphrase Bill Veeck: "A losing ball-team can draw more with beer and Peter Dinklage than with a long still silence."

So there you have it, my plan to help restore the Twins to Wooden Throne, or, if you're here because you were looking for Game of Thrones analysis, my conjectures as to what will be in Martin's next book. Below is a summary of the final results.

***

Trades:
Eddie Rosario and Jared Burton to Toronto for RHP Marcus Stroman and a betrayal to be named later
Ryan Doumit to Seattle for LHPs Rusty Shellhorn and Roenis Elias
Kevin Corriea to Colorado for SS Rosell Herrera and/or RHP Scott Oberg

Signings:
Phil Hughes--10 Million/year
Josh Johnson--9 Million
Johan Santana--5 Million
Benjy Molina--4.5 Million
Peter Dinklage--3 Million
Eric Chavez--2 Million

Lineup: Molina/Mauer/Dozier/Florimon/Plouffe/Willingham/Hicks/Arcia/Chavez
Bench: Pinto/Colabello/Escobar/Mastroianni
Rotation: Johnson/Hughes/Santana/Deduno/(Gibson, Diamond, Stroman, et. al)
Bullpen: Swarzak/Welker/Tonkin/Fien/Duensing/Theilbar/Perkins

Total Salary: $82 Million

Wha Happened #5 (v.s. Rangers and @ Tigers)

Game 20

Rangers 2 - Twins 1

Despite the evening's overlong, numbingly-slow, seemingly interminable catalogue of the talents of others, the Twin Cities were delighted by their own brief shining moment of glory. 

But enough has been written about the Vikings' draft...The Twins also played and saw Josh Willingham hit a homerun in a losing effort to a more talented Rangers squad.

In other news: The Twins front office began declaring their interest in drafting Mantei Te'o with the fourth overall pick in June's draft...just to keep local sportswriters amused for a few more weeks.

Game 21

Rangers 4 - Twins 3

It was a beautiful afternoon in the Twins clubhouse, the perfect time to get in a little extra batting practice, enjoy some of the first sunshine of the spring.

That's when Aaron Hicks noticed a shadow floating off by the electric marquee announcing the night's pitching match up. "OH NO!" He shouted, "You guys! We've got....the...Grimm!"

"Yeah," replied Josh Willingham unconcernedly, "he's a rookie."

"But...the Grimm foretells death and ill fortune for all who see it!!"

"What, did you face him in the minors or something?" asked Joe Mauer.

"No! But I read all about it in Unfogging the Future by Cassandra Vablatsky!"

"Umm...Aaron," replied Justin Morneau, slurping the last of his McDonald's Sweet Tea [ONLY 99 cents AT PARTICIPATING STORES!!] "I think that's only a book in the Harry Potter series." 

"AAAAH!" Shouted Aaron Hicks, grabbing Morneau's cup and swirling around the dregs of the drink as if it were tea leaves, "IT'S THERE...IT'S THERE AGAIN!!! WE'RE DOOMED, DOOMED I SAY!!"

As Aaron Hicks ran around shouting about the disaster to everyone, the heart of the order gathered together. Finally Morneau broke the silence, "I suppose the nice thing to do would be to help Hicksy build some confidence by having his prediction come true...you guys willing to get held scoreless by a rookie startert again?"

"Eh," they responded in unison, "why not?"

So they did...and Aaron Hicks felt better...and Oswaldo Arcia hit another homer...and the game was lost, but the nerdiness was won.

Game 22

Twins 7 - Rangers 2

On their second consecutive beautiful day the Twins started to wonder if playing against the Rangers was really worth it. I mean, couldn't they just play this one quickly, lose (as they probably would anyway) and go home to put their feet up on the deck with a drink in hand and a steak on the grill?

The very happy Mr. Hernandez

But Rookie Pedro Hernandez was delighted to be there, making his second start and first attempt to become part of the "rotation". He kept talking to players in the dugout about "how cool" it was, and that standing on a big league mound was "so sweet!"

When removed from the game after the fifth, Hernandez sat beaming on the bench around other players. "Man you guys this day is just awesome!" [mumble grumble said the team that wanted to go home] "Major league baseball...I mean for REALS!! How cool is this!!?!? [I-du-mumma-grumba said the team who was so over playing every day] "And just think tonight I've got Cloud Cult tickets for me and my best friends!" [Record scratch sound, heads swivel and everybody crowds around Hernandez]

In an effort to impress Hernandez and get those extra tickets, Brian Dozier kept bragging about his "totally amazeballs sac fly", Wilkin Ramirez and Aaron Hicks drove in insurance runs, Josh Willingham smashed a home run to left, and when the bullpen heard about this option Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing and Jared Burton turned in scoreless efforts. And even though Glen Perkins gave up 2 runs, Hernandez cheered him up by flashing an extra ticket at him from the top step of the dugout.

And as "Beautiful Day" played on the loud speakers, you could almost hear the glee as Wilkin Ramirez shouted "Let's get out of here and go listen to some experimental local indie art rock!! WOO Cloud Cult!!"

Woo Cloud Cult indeed.

Game 23

Twins 5 - Rangers 0

Sunday was my first day of the season at Target Field, with beautiful sunshine, a well paced game and the chance to see a well-played game. It also allowed me to develop what I think might be the best equation for the Twins surprising .500 record in April

BB*H^2 + (ESKC/CP2012) = LW

That's Bases on Balls (aka Walks) times Hits squared, plus Early Season Kevin Correia-ness* over Craptastic Pitching from 2012 equals a likely Win. The more we do any of these things, the more walks drawn, the more hits attained, the more Early-Season-Kevin-Correia-y our pitching can be and the less craptastically our pitching resembles that of 2012, the better chance we have to win. (And with Willingham getting the walks, Morneau getting the hits and Kevin Correia being Kevin Correia-y this game was a likely win) 

*Note, this is a very special brand of Kevin Correia and can still be used as a stand in for average effectiveness as a pitcher even if/when Correia collapses, after all Scott Diamond has had a very high Early-Season Kevin Correianess quotient throughout his run with the Twins*

ADDED BONUS: A HAIKU FOR THE FOOD I ATE AT THE PARK

The Italian Sausage

First bite of summer

Spices mild as big muddy

Bursts on snow tired tongue

Game 24
Tigers 4 - Twins 3

Having split the series against a very tough Rangers team, the Twins went in to Detroit full of piss, vinegar, and other assorted odd liquids. And to be sure, everything seemed to be going wonderfully, Josh Willingham homered again, Oswaldo Arcia continued to hit the ball hard, and Mike Pelfrey (the bionic reclamation project) seemed to have found a way to get guys out using trickery, guile (and maybe some mixture of piss and vinegar in their gatorade).

But it was not to last...heading into the bottom of the sixth with the top of the order due up Gardy had a premonition that perhaps Pelfrey would need to take a rest. But Pelfrey prevailed upon him telling him in a slightly robotic tone, "come on skip-per...I can get these guys...my arm feels great...I just need some WD-40 to loosen my pitching mechanism...I mean, I just need a 'hot towel' on my 'arm' and I'll get them."

Gardy was concerned, but after Pelfrey corrected himself he was sure things would work out...But Vegetarian crusader Prince Fielder could smell the metal and the grease and the un-eco friendly Pelfrey from a mile away. And with two men on, trailing by two he did what any self-respecting Vegi-citizen would do and lined a homerun to left-center, winning the game for the Tigers and increasing Super Agent Scott Boras' fear that his bionic pitcher project may be a dud...but that Fielder guy will probably make him some money for a long time to come.

Game 25
Tigers 6 - Twins 1

During all of this media reports surfaced that our benevolent chairman Joe Mauer was going through the worst hitting slump of his life. Going 0 for his last 20 entering play Tuesday night. These of course were salacious lies, Mauer (Bringer of Sun to the Snow Plagued Lands) in his infinite genius and wisdom has been redistributing feelings of honor and prosperity to other hitters in the Twins line-up.

"The chairman (praises be to him), has mercifully blessed me with the muscle mass to hit many doubles" reported young Eduardo Escobar, "he truly is the harbinger of victory and a bountiful harvest."

The Detroit Tygra Ace

Enemies still bow before Mauer (provider of Snow in Sun plagued lands). And fear his mighty eyes of laser precision that are the only true judge of strikes and balls (no matter what the puppet umpires of the capitalist conspiracy of pitchers tells you). Witness the Chairman's mighty single against the Man-Tiger Hybrid called Justin Verlander, the American League's greatest weapon of mass destruction.

The Chairman has vowed to honor all of those who have remained loyal to his greatness and destroy Thundera...I mean Comerica on his next visit, just as soon as he figures out why he wants to bomb Austin, Texas.

Game 26
Twins 6 - Tigers 2

Having been bested by both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander the Twins had hoped to get their offense going in the final game on Wednesday afternoon. Unfortunately they were facing Anibal Sanchez, whom the Twins announcers continue to insist on calling "Anna-belle" Sanchez. The image of Sanchez with a parasol, and a fan on the mound shouting out "I do declare!" was just too dang funny and they laughed their way to 9 strikes and a 3-2 lead thanks largely to swatting at balls while muttering "I don't give a damn".

Good goat...good goat.

Fortunately it was enough as Scott Diamond gave up only two runs and avoided Rich Anderson hugs long enough to get through 6 innings en route to another win and a return to .500!

Mr. Peanut Award: Kevin Correia (easily gave the most impressive single performance of the week...and I've been ignoring him too long...like Sally Field at the Oscars)
Nutty Buddy: Joe Mauer (not that the chairman requires pity...but listing a Nutty Buddy has boosted the fortunes of others before...fingers crossed!)

Ominous...and yet...

I feel like I'm beginning a lot of posts this way lately but: "Apologies for the delay in posting...we peanuts have been awfully busy". Work, school, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Yup...pretty dark...

So why break radio silence as the Twins are about to fall even farther behind the Royals for fourth place (yes, fourth place) in the AL Central? Because, for as ominous as the end of this year is becoming there's something else, out there in the distance that we haven't thought about yet.

See, in baseball it's easy to get transfixed by the little things, the moments, the day to day minutiae of the game. They say it again and again for players--"he's overthinking", "he needs to put his bad at-bats behind him", "they've just got to take it one day at a time." Some players just can't help but worry about every single at bat that turned into an easy ground ball, every fielding chance they fumbled, every pitch they failed to execute.

See! No signs of hits or throws!

One bad play begets another, which begets another, which begets another and so and so forth. If you don't believe me ask Trevor Plouffe and his mid-June spurt of throws that missed the broad side of every barn between here and Brainerd. Or ask Tsuyoshi Nishioka who so plainly wants to succeed and seems so utterly shamed every time he walks back to the dugout after failing to beat the throw to first. Or ask Brian Duensing as he sits on the bench, chewing his nails, mentally replaying pitch sequences that turned an inning with two quick outs into a sudden three-run, chase-him-from-the-game, question-his-spot-in-the-rotation-and-career-path nightmare.

One player struggles, then another, and another and the panic grips the team. Even the indomitable Pav-stache and robotic Joe Mauer seem to be waiting for the inevitable defeat at this point. Sure they'll try, but they just accept that when it's a borderline pitch, the call is going to go against them. They haven't given up--but the looming doom is right there over the Twins collective shoulders.

While that makes watching the games (and rehashing them in blog form) a little rough at times, there's something we have to remember.

There. Is. Hope.

Start with the fact that a lousy record now means a solid draft pick next year (and at a fairer price if MLB and the Union agree on a better draft system). Sure the Twins farm system isn't great now...but bear in mind that we've been drafting at the ends of rounds for the last decade--our best players were picked up during our decade of slump-tacular mid-90's horror. A true top-flight prospect who can contribute in a year or two rather than 5 will be much appreciated.

If only it were this easy

Also remember that the Twins did not flip a switch and go from a good ball club to a lousy one. They didn't forget to pack the talent with them as they left Fort Meyers, they simply could never dig themselves out of a considerable hole made in April and May (and dug again through injuries and poor pitching in August). Make good moves for 10 years and you're a model organization--make bad moves for 1 year and you aren't utterly hopeless...you've just run up against a law of averages.

Finally, never forget that through it all Twins fans keep plopping down cash to go to Target Field, keep buying jerseys and bobbleheads and all kinds of gear. That's money we could use to get another good pitcher, or infielder, or whatever. (It's also likely those prices won't rise next year, given the shoddy product on the field this year.)

Ahh, there it is!

I see this all the time when I teach. Kids look up and see the gloomy cloud of an impending test, or project, or class. They struggle once, they expect to struggle again and again, and nothing will ever be good or fun and life is horrible.

But once they see a little gleam of hope: a word they know from their notes, a thumbs up from a truculent teacher, a smile from their crush, then the world is marvelous and beautiful and completely peachy keen!

The Twins (and their fans) have seen the dark clouds all year long. Don't forget--there's always a silver lining.

A Letter to My New Hero

Dear Brian Duensing,

I have just finished reading this recent news article from the Minneapolis Star Tribune, and let me begin by saying: my deepest condolences to you and your friends, family and neighbors in Omaha. I can't imagine the trauma of the incident described, and I hope that your community can continue to come together in this time of need.

However, I learned many other things from this article. For instance: You totally despise the Yankees...so do I. You graduated from high school in 2001...so did I. You majored in English Literature and expressed an interest in teaching high school if baseball didn't work out...so did I! (Only I could tell baseball wouldn't work out for me around age 9.)

Because you're so much like me Brian, I now feel terrible about constantly linking blog posts about you to silly you tube clips and giving you the nickname: "Brian "You Make Me Feel Like" Duensing ". I would not have made such a lame joke if I had known how alike we are. I will also resist, for the moment, the temptation to ask you for lesson plan opinions and making silly comments about Vygotsky's "Strike Zone of Proximal Development" [Education Nerd Joke! HIYO--!!!!!]

I will simply wish you best of luck on the coming season...because when one English Lit/Education Major wins...WE ALL WIN!!

Warmest Regards,

The Scruffy Rube

P.s. Nerds FOREVER!!