Let's Make a Deal Wrap-up!

Our trade market is less volatile
than this one

It's time to wrap up this blog's trade deadline speculation series/gameshow in the making: Let's Make a Deal. Where I offer you trade returns based on the historical equivalent of current Twins. First, let's check out how the fans did in making a deal for Francisco Liriano in what was nearly a unanimous verdict (until my friend Aly called in a last second vote for door #2).

No one, and I mean, NO ONE, wanted to keep Frankie or trade for door #3. (Since Door #3 contained three hitters and zero pitchers, it makes sense. And since those three hitters were actually career minor leaguers Dustin Brisson, Luis Alfonso Garcia and Rick Asadoorian, it seems like a pretty good pick.)


Now, since I know Aly reads this blog, I hate to tell her that she managed to pull a pretty foul Zonko behind door #2. Yes, in exchange for Frankie and three more starters Aly would have gotten John Christensen, Wes Gardner, LaSchelle Tarver and Calvin Schiraldi. (And hey, since Aly's a Red Sox fan, that Calvin Schiraldi burn stings even more)


But the vast majority of votes (5 in fact) went for door #1. And though the hitters (Corey Pointer and Ron White) are nothing to write home about, that up and down starter just happened to be Jason Schmidt. Not a hall of famer, but not chopped liver either. Nicely done Armchair GM's nicely done.

Sadly, as much fun as I've had creating these silly little mental exercises in the last few weeks, I'm actually out of reasonable research. I did look into the yield on Ryan Doumit and Carl Pavano...but neither one is getting a peep or a squeak of interest on the trading block (a two year extension and long DL stint probably have something to do with that). And I don't quite have the time to research potential Josh Willingham trade equivalents (not that Terry Ryan would trade him for anything less than immediate access fountain of youth/catcher knees).

Thanks to the magic of internet voting, the popular opinion of the Twins blogosphere has been heard, and when it comes four Twins trading chips, they've decided to:

• Keep Denard Span (passing on three packages with minimal return)
• Trade Matt Capps (for a package highlighted by an Edwin Jackson in the making)
• Keep Justin Morneau (passing on a package that included young Steve Finley/Curt Schilling)
• Trade Francisco Liriano (for a package highlighted by Jason Schmidt)

It seems that, for the fans, the best way to build the pitching staff is to subtract some pitching from the current roster, and keep the hitters. And to be honest, if you were a time traveller who told me that we could trade an irrelevant reliever and an inconsistent starter for two future all stars I would make that deal in a heart beat. But, unfortunately, Terry Ryan can't make trades with a way-back machine and has to deal with the present market (one filled with surprisingly suspicious buyers and a noticable lack of young Jason Schmidts).

To wrap up, I thought it would be instructive to see the general returns on the different types of Twins bargaining chips; the sort of average return to compare against any deals Terry Ryan makes in the next few weeks.

• Players like Denard Span generally brought back two near major-league reader prospects: usually an outfielder and a pitcher (even mix between relievers and starters)
• Players like Matt Capps generally brought back between two and three prospects (usually between A and AAA) including one player Baseball America put in it's preseason top 100.
• Players like Justin Morneau generally brought back three prospects (usually between A and AA) including an infielder, an outfielder and a starting pitcher.
• Players like Francisco Liriano generally brought back three to four prospects (usually between AA and AAA) including multiple position players and one pitching prospect.

And just so my work doesn't go for naught, here's what I saw for the other researched trades

• Players like Carl Pavano generally brought back one to two prospects (between A and AAA) usually entirely made of pitching talent.
• Players like Ryan Doumit generally brought back two to three prospects (between AA and AAA) including one starter and one reliever.

So if that's par for the course, it's time for Terry Ryan to tee it up and go for the green and other cliched golf metaphors as well.

Thanks for trying your hand at this purely speculative enterprise. I wondered how well Twins fans would do at making the deals themselves, and was generally impressed. If there's interest out there, I'll certainly try doing this all again next year (when we'll likely have a different bargain bin to offer up).

But I think whatever you think of this blog series we can all agree on the best part of it: RIDICULOUS TERRY RYAN PHOTOSHOPS!

Let's Make a Deal Round 4

It's time for the All-Star Game (a favorite event for we Peanuts, because it is just as silly as we always are, and because we feel proud to join the teeming masses who mock Joe Buck every year!)

But before the big(ish) game, we should think about what we do with our own all-stars given that we may be trading a few of them before the month is out. Last week we gave you a choice of what to do with first baseman, three-time all-star and former MVP Justin Morneau. After five heated days of voting we ended up with 2 votes asking to keep Justin and one vote a piece for each of the trade options. Since majority rules, we'll say that our fans voted to KEEP JUSTIN. A fine choice, but was it the best choice? Let's look at what the fans passed up!

• Behind Door #1, our first comprable Morneau trade would have gotten us a starter named Hunter Strickland (3 years after the trade in question he made it to AA...three weeks ago) and Short Stop Argenis Diaz, whose had one cup of coffee and is looking for another while playing for a different franchise. 1 vote
• Behind Door #2 there was outfielder Charles Poe (who never went past AA), and starter Andrew Lorraine who had minor success as a long man and spot starter. 1 vote
• But behind Door #3 that major league ready talent I talked about included the outfielder Steve Finley, starting pitcher (and one-time all star) Pete Harnisch...and Mr. Bloody Sock himself, Curt Schilling. 1 vote

I have to ask--if you're desperate for starting pitching, would Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling (plus Steve Finley) be enough to satisfy your hunger?

But rather than fixating on deals that were (or in this case weren't) done we can move on to the next trade to be. I had intended to continuing our firesale with erstwhile ace and permanent mustache inspiration: Carl Pavano; but all the TwinTweeters have been abuzz about the odds that Frankie Franchise is done in a Twins uniform. So, in an effort to capitalize off the popularity of this situation I hereby present: LET'S MAKE A DEAL FOR FRANCISCO LIRIANO

Every kids' favorite toy: Raggedy Ryan!

Alright, we all know the deal: Frankie's a talented if mercurial lefty, and while he might not be likely to resign with us next year (unless we offer to pay him in gum) he is probably our best pitcher right now. So, remembering that you can always keep him, let's sneak a peak at what is available behind Door #1, Door #2 and Door #3.*

Selecting Door #1 will offer you three talented prospects. First there's an outfielder (20) in Low A Ball who boasts a very promising slash line of: .245/.349/.502. Then there's a first baseman (20) in AA coming off a year in A ball where his OPS was a mighty .967 (.877 so far this year). And finally, because we know how much the Twins covet starting pitching there's a starting pitcher (23) who has been shuttling between AAA and the Majors and came into the year as one of the Top 15 prospects in all of baseball.

Meanwhile, in order to pry open Door #2 you'll have to be willing to give up a bit more than just Liriano (call it insurance against another Frankie being Frankie episode), if you're willing to give up Liriano and three more pitchers (let's say starters from A (21) and AA (19) plus a long-reliever (25) in AAA). But, if you give up that bounty you'll get back a bevy of talented AAA players including one outfielder (24) shuttling between AAA and the majors just waiting for a break through, and another whose slugging leaves a little to be desired but does get on base at a .386 clip. Since the Twins want so much pitching we'll also provide a AAA reliever (24) who has a 1.19 WHIP this year and a starter on the same AAA team who keeps the ball down (HR/9 under .5 for the last four years).

Finally, one organization, with little pitching to offer hopes to make up for it with plenty of offensive talent, starting with a first baseman (23) whose OPS in A ball this year is .812. another first baseman (23) in AA whose OPS is .973, and an outfielder (20) who has 35 stolen bases in his last two seasons of A ball.

*Note: I realize that these are underwhelming offers, but they're based on returns for pitchers like Liriano, not necessarily for pitchers available in a thin starter's market at a deadline with multiple buyers. All things being equal pitchers of Frankie's calibre tend to yield 2-3 prospects from a variety of positions.

So, while that might seem like a fuzzy pack of lollipops to choose from, there is one all-star in the making out there for you. Now, what will you do with Francisco Liriano: Keep him or trade him away for Door #1, Door #2 or Door #3?!?

Let's Make a Deal Round 3

Another week closer to the trade deadline, another week worth of rampant speculation and wild hopes for Twins fans; after several days of heated voting the fans chose to trade Matt Capps rather than keep him, stunning the blog-o-sphere...oh wait! Let's see what the fans picked and what they passed up.

Door #2 netted two votes and provides my personal favorite proof of idiotic trades made for "closers" Capps compares well with Ugueth [namesake of my first child boy OR girl] Urbina and at roughly the same age in a mid-season trade Urbina netted the Texas Rangers less impressive talents like Will Smith [not the rapper] and Ryan Snare [not that guy who sat behind you in 11th Grade history], but did yield a first baseman you might have heard of: Adrian Gonzalez. Sure the Rangers sent him off to San Diego (and thence to Boston) but still, might be nice to have a bat like that to cover up Mauer/Morneau in years to come. 2 votes...not happening for the Twin Cities


Door #3 got the same number of votes as door #2 and proves that quantity is not necessarily quality, as these candidates turn into Mick Pageler, Mike Villano, and YES IT's true! Joe Fontenot...making this the obvious ZONK! 2 votes....OOOPS!

Door #1 was the choice of our voters, despite that fact that it required another pitcher [Jeff the Vulture Gray], still this deal would lead to the Twins acquiring players like Chuck Tiffany [pause to let everyone say "who?"] but would also net starting pitcher/All-Star/World Champion Starter Edwin Jackson...of course he's a Scott Boras client so the likelihood of keeping him once Free Agency hit is anybodies guess. 3 votes gets us a #2 starting pitcher...NICE JOB FANS!!

For our next "Let's Make a Deal" we'll look at what you could get for one of the most hotly debated trading chips the Twins have: local favorite and former MVP Justin Morneau. I offer the options, you vote in the poll on our blog, or in the comments below, next week I reveal what you came away with.

Hip-Hop Dutchman?

Alright, we all know what Justin can do when healthy, the only question is whether or not he's really healthy. The good news is that, behind one of these doors of similar players traded there's a border-line Hall of Famer, but where? Let's sneak a peak behind the curtain as we try to make a deal (remember, you can always vote to keep Justin if you prefer).

Behind Door #1 there's a right handed starting pitcher (20) in A ball whose cut his WHIP down to 1.17 and has a K/BB ratio that's been consistently over 3.5 in his three years of pro ball, as well as a slim short stop (22) in AA who has posted an OBP over .300 at every stop of the minors, his defense is not always consistent, but shows improvement, and both can be yours if you MAKE A DEAL!

Behind Door #2 there's an AA Outfielder (23) who posted near highs in Doubles, OBP, and Slugging in his first full season at the higher level, and a Lefty Starter (22) ranked a top 75 prospect by Baseball America who jumped from Low A directly to AAA and boasts a K/9 rate of 6. All this for just one little Canadian First baseman if you MAKE A DEAL!

And finally behind Door #3 we have major league ready talent. Start with a versatile outfielder (26) who spent almost all of last year with the major league club succeeding on 70% of his stolen base attempts and getting on base at a percentage over .300. We've also got a former first round pick, a right handed pitcher (23) whose minor league numbers include an ERA perpetually under 3, a WHIP consistently under 1.5, and profiles to move beyond his 11-11 record last year. And there's another Righty Starter in AAA (23) who just posted a career best 3.3 K/BB Ratio, and made a few appearances out of the big-league bullpen. Yes, this cornocopia of prospects can be yours when you MAKE A DEAL!

So what will it be would-be-GMs out there? Keep Justin Morneau, or trade him for Door #1, Door #2, or Door #3!?!?

COME BACK NEXT WEEK FOR THE REVEAL AND PROPOSED TRADES FOR MR. MUSTACHE HIMSELF: CARL PAVANO

Let's Make a Deal! (Round 2)

Welcome back to everybody's favorite form of roster-modification: LET'S MAKE A DEAL! That's right, I pretend to be Wayne Brady, you pretend to be Terry Ryan dressed up like a giant Radish! (Also, you pick a trading partner for an expendable player on the Twins roster)

First, let's reveal what we came away with last week as we made a deal for Denard Span. Between the three comments on Twins Daily, the one comment here and the poll votes it winds up with 6 votes to keep Denard and 4 to trade him (with Ryan Doumit for door #3).

So fans chose not to make a trade this first time around so let's see what they passed up:

• Behind Door #1 there was a package originally swapped for the immortal Johnny Grubb...[cricket noises]...Grubb was another slash hitting outfielder with manageable salary who was traded from Cleveland to Texas for Bobby [not Mike] Cuellar and Mike Rivera, neither Cuellar nor Rivera ever made the majors for Cleveland. Zero votes...SMART FANS!
• Moving on to Door #2 we have cash and a prospect named Cutter Dykstra!! (The touted Dykstra went from Milwaukee to Washington for Nyjer Morgan...and is currently rediscovering his form in Low A ball). Zero votes...SMART FANS!! 
• Finally, behind Door #3 we have solid though unspectacular backups Koyie Hill and Bill Murphy (as well as career minor leaguer Reggie Abercrombie) who were previously traded to Arizona for the pale Denard, Steve Finley, and the weaker Doumit Brent Mayne. Four Votes...manageable, and hey, Koyie Hill will always trump Drew Butera.

So Twins fans made a savvy move holding on to Denard without a great deal in the offing. But before we all get gun shy  I will tell you this: not one but TWO future all-stars are available in the next round of deals to be offered, so keep your eyes peeled as we try to make a deal for everybody's favorite implosion waiting to happen closer Matt Capps! SO LET'S MAKE A DEAL!!

Okay Terry Potters (get it?) we'll pretend for a minute that (1) Matt Capps isn't hurt when the deadline rolls around and (2) that GMs are more focused on how he has done generally--right around average--rather than any specific catastrophes mishaps of the past year or so. So once again you can keep Matt Capps OR trade him away for what's behind Door #1, Door #2 or Door #3!! (In accordance with the suggestions from readers I'll include ages as well (years old in parentheses)

Door #1 costs a little more than Matt Capps, yes we'd ask you to include Jeff Gray as well, but in return for those two somewhat inconsequential players you can get a young power starter (21) in A ball with a 1.2 WHIP and a K/BB ratio above 3 as well as a starter (21) who has yo-yo'd between the majors and AAA, and despite a less impressive 2.0 WHIP at AAA this year came into this season ranked as a Top 30 Prospect by Baseball America.

Doors #2 & 3 ask for just Matt Capps, and for #2 we have a bonanza of three players, starting with an outfielder (21) with .810 OPS last year in A Ball--steady power numbers between low and High A, a slugging first baseman (21) who came into the season ranked in the Top 35 prospects by Baseball America after a solid AA season, and a starter (24) who ate up AA last year (1.18 WHIP, and 2.0 K/BB Ratio (though it hasn't been as easy there this year) he has started going deeper into games.

Finally, behind Door #3 you might find a budding relief prospect (21)--29 Saves and 2.92 K/BB--a starter (25) who has started rising to the challenge in AAA after struggling as a reliever in AA and a promising starter (21) in AA ranked as a top #50 prospect by BA who has cut back on his walks and wild pitches this year.

So what will it be would-be GMs? Would you like to keep Matt Capps or swap him out for what's behind Door #1, Door #2 or Door #3!?!? (There's a poll on the right side of our website, and always room for more comments below. Make your voice heard by Midnight Sunday. We'll wrap up the results next week and consider what might be netted in a trade for a cornerstone in the Twins infield.)

Let's Make a Deal! Round 1

In six weeks the trade deadline will come to pass, but before that happens there will be rumors, conjecture, and wheeling/dealing of innumerable kinds. It's exhilarating and yet, frightening because--after all--you're giving up something you know for something that is totally unpredictable.

There's so much uncertainty that it makes me feel every bit as anxious as I used to feel watching game shows as a kid. For some reason--even though many were decade's old repeats--I worried over each lightning round, groaned with each needless gamble and muttered "no whammy, no whammy, no whammy" over and over again.

But beyond a doubt, the trade-crazed part of the season reminds me of Monte Hall's legendary "Let's Make a Deal". For those who didn't waste their sick days gorging on bad tv: Let's Make a Deal gives average people the chance to just take away a couple hundred bucks or trade it in for something behind one of three doors. Some contain fabulous prizes, some contain goats chewing hay. You just never know

Yes, I have several brain cells devoted to knowing this show...
(Courtesy Letsmakeadeal.com)

Whatever you may say about scouting reports and statistical analyses, trades still boil down to fast choices between a few options--keep what you have or swap it out for an unknown risk. But rather than let Terry Ryan have all the fun/anxiety of these decisions, we fans can play along at home!

That's right, I'm channelling my inner Monte Hall/Wayne Brady and presenting three options for the Twins most likely trade candidates. Each one is based on trades made for similar players in baseball history, and while they aren't all deadline deals or deals with similar contract statuses, they represent deals that offer things the Twins might like to have in building for the future in exchange for a similar player at a similar age.

So, you'll all be playing as Terry Ryan and in the interest of fairness I'll give you a few hints at who's behind the door with stats and ages. Then you vote (either in the poll at the right, or the comments section below) for the trade you think TR should make. I'll unveil what's behind each door next week so we can see just what the blogo-sphere community would walk away with if we pooled our collective wisdom.

With that let's.......MAKE A DEAL!!!!!!!

Image credit: CBS.com

Okay, Terrys first up I'll give you a 28-year-old consistently above average Center Fielder: that's right it's Denard Span!!! Alright, would you like to keep Denard Span or would you like what's behind Door #1? Door #2? Or Door #3?

Oh, don't make up your mind so fast Terrys! Let's get a little hint at what you'd get behind each other door

Behind door #1 there's a durable reliever in AAA who had a 1.94 K/BB ratio and a 1.35 ERA in a cup of coffee with the big team. To sweeten the pot, there's a fast rising outfielder whose defense just gets better with each level (1.34 RF/G in A ball to 1.79 in AA) he cranked 26 homers in A ball and though that dropped to 16 in AA this year he's just 20 years old and should get better with age especially in your system when you MAKE THIS DEAL!!

Behind door #2 there's a man Baseball Prospectus ranks as a top 10 prospect on the team! He's versatile enough to have split time between second base and the outfield in rookie ball and he's even made the transition to 3rd in A ball this year! But the bat is the big appeal for this youngster boasting a current slash line of .312/.416/.411! We'll even throw in a fat wad of cash just for you if you MAKE THIS DEAL!!

And finally behind door #3 we have some options, you can have any 2 of the following 3 players, yes... in this scenario you can pick between an outfielder who marked a career high in Home Runs in AA last year (but is crowded out of our flush system); a catcher who's just about major league ready posting a .286/.339/.471 slash line in AAA (how 'bout that to replace Drew Butera?); OR a AA Starting pitcher who has 113 Ks in 103 innings and 1.92 K/BB Ratio! And hey, if you want all three just agree to toss in Ryan Doumit and we will MAKE THIS DEAL!!

So there you have it blogosphere Terry-clones! Do you want to keep Denard Span or will it be Door #1! Door #2! or Door #3!!!

(Vote in the poll at right, or vote and share your reasoning in the comments below--our trade deadline is Sunday at Midnight Central)