Cliff Notes for the 2015 Twins: Chapter 3

Again, I've been derelict in my duty--though I was out of the country and away from reliable internets for a while there. Still were back with another nerdy English-Class style recap of the last month (plus) in Twins Territory

Chapter 3: June to the All-Star Break

Plot Summary:

So great was the joy among fans after a shockingly strong June, that the Twins could, to many eyes, have appeared better than they actually were. So it was only slightly surprising that the team stumbled badly in June.

The slide began by dropping two out of three to the Brewers (who had not been terribly impressive) at Target Field. Then the rival Royals ended the Twins' time atop the Central with a sweep (culminating in Torii Hunter's freak out) and the doldrums continued as they dropped two out of three to the Rangers, but in an effort either to stop the slide or to hold on to their quavering place in the attention of local fans the Twins called up the first of their dynamic prospects: Byron Buxton.

Buxton's arrival accompanied the only Twins win in Texas, and despite two losses in St. Louis, his thrilling play and daring speed were on fine display as the team returned to the Twin Cities in excellent form evening the score against the Cardinals, several close games against the Cubs and a crushing of the White Sox. Sadly, a slide against the White Sox also crushed a bone in Buxton's thumb, and he was removed from the lineup as suddenly as he appeared.

Efforts to repeat the magic on a return trip to Milwaukee by calling up another touted prospect in Alex Meyer were unsuccessful. The National League again thwarted the Twins' momentum as the Brewers and Reds squeezed the home town 9 to a paltry 4-8 record against the bottom 3 teams in the NL Central. Meyer was duly demoted and again things looked grim.

The Twins went to the prospect well a third time and called up Miguel Sano for their visit to Kansas City. As a pure hitter, Sano trumped even the heralded Buxton, and his 11 game hit-streak coincided with the Twins sudden offensive rejuvenation as they finished the first half of the season on a 8-3 run, good enough to put them in 2nd place in the division and 2nd place in the entire American League.

Main Character Development:
The true climax of this chapter was the All-Star Game and the two Twins players who went, recognized as being among the best of the best (the 90th percentile of players in the major leagues). First and foremost, the acknowledged top closer in the league: Glen Perkins. Perkins broader acclaim was all the more note worthy for where he had come from: failed starter, unhappy demoted pitcher, after thought set-up reliever, and, as of now, owner of the best Save streak in Twins history (28 in a row). Most impressively, in this chapter of the season he faced 45 batters and allowed only 6 of them to reach base (a .133 OBP against).

Perkins was joined in Cincinatti by second baseman Brian Dozier who was initially left off of the roster. That snub may have been the best thing for him. It begat a voting campaign (No Bull, Vote Dozier); it got his name mentioned consistently in the national press and on cable tv, and it aligned perfectly with an outburst of timely hitting including two walk-off home runs and another in the All-Star Game itself that captured a great many eyeballs across the country and began a genuine grumbling campaign that he might be the league MVP (assuming he both kept it up and found some way of getting Mike Trout to fall into a temporal vortex). What was once a cute photoshop on this blog is now a common talking point (so much so that at a wedding I attended last weekend, both the bride and my grandmother could be found discussing him).

As Perkins and Dozier rise as protagonists, it will be interesting to see what obstacles and conflicts are thrown in their way to create dramatic tension for the rest of the season.

Key Quote/Stat Explained:
Pythagorean Winning Percentage: .528

As any fan can tell you, occasionally the better team loses. Unlucky bounces, dumb umpire calls, a slight stumble on a soggy infield, all of it can turn the game when you least expect it. So there's the Pythagorean Winning percentage, in which the square of the hypotenuse of a right tri...wait, no...that's Pythagorus' Triangle Theorem...when he was brought forward to the present by Doctors Bill S. Prescott and Theodore Logan to watch baseball and party on dude, he (and Bill James) developed an equation to measure how many games a team should win based on both their runs scored and their runs allowed.

To wit:

                      (Runs Scored)^1.83
---------------------------------------------------------
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

via baseball Reference

Basically dividing the (approximate) square of a team's runs scored, by the (approximate) square of their runs scored PLUS the (approximate) square of their runs allowed should yield an average result.

So while many Twins fans are dancing joyously at the fact that the Twins have the second best record in the American League, our Pythagorean Winning Percentage can show whether we are really lucky, a little lucky, or even unlucky to be where we are.

The Twins Pythagorean Winning Percentage is .528 (or 52.8%); their real world winning percentage is .551 (or 55.1%), so they've only been about 2.3% luckier than their run total would suggest. So they are actually a solid team with the chance to get better (unlike the White Sox who are below 500 and still 8% luckier than they ought to be).

The one down side is the Twins have a lower Pythagorean Winning Percentage than 8 other teams, including three currently outside of the playoff hunt: the Orioles (7% unlucky), the Blue Jays (8% unlucky) and the Athletics (9.8% unlucky). If those teams see their records normalize a bit, and the Twins drop even a percent in their luck, people dreaming of the playoffs can put a pin in it.

Literary Term to Impress English Majors:
Writers throughout history have relied on a simple belief: everything's better in threes. Hence "The Rule of Three". Things are funnier, easier to remember, generally more meaningful if you combine things in threes: three volume novels; three act plays; three little pigs; three bears; I came, I saw, I conquered; stop, drop, and roll; a priest, a minister, and a rabbi

It doesn't just take three things to fit the rule of three, they should be thematically connected and structured in such a way as to make meaning. So take the Twins June/July call ups: Buxton/Meyer/Sano.

From L-R: Meyer, Berrios, Sano, Buxton
(Good news, Jose: you don't have to worry about this rule)

1. Buxton comes first, and excites the fan base, we need him and he looks pretty good but it's over early due to the thumb injury. 
2. Meyer comes second, the fan base is a little less excited, but there's enough mention of his pedigree, status and dominance as a reliever in AAA to make him enticing, and it's over very quickly when he gets hammered by big league bats. 
3. Sano comes last, and while he's long been one of the two big names in the Twins' system, the structure is set up to make at least a few fans regard another call-up skeptically. So his offensive outburst with power and patience seems like a pleasant surprise, even though he has always looked capable of this.

Obviously, I don't think the Twins intended Buxton and Meyer to have such unpleasant endings to their Major League debuts, but if there was some sort of magical script-writing in all of this, it would be a pretty great use of the Rule of Three.

The Cure for the Twins Offense

Though the Twins' offense has struggled to generate many runs in the month of June, their tremendous success in May and the method of their outburst against the White Sox yesterday reminds us all of what has worked for the team all year: Hit Clusters.

Now, the Twins, along with local business partners in the breakfast cereal industry are out to share the secret of their winning ways with the populace at large in this new advertisement for a special Twins Centric Cereal!

[Our first shot is of Twins clubhouse where a dejected looking Kennys Vargas and Byron Buxton sit at the team breakfast table]

Kennys: It isn't easy to be a big leaguer...

Byron: Yeah, and you'd think they'd be able to afford something better than simple toast for us too...

[Brian Dozier enters, with a big smile and, if possible, animated unicorns and ninjas]

Brian: Are you guys tired of your boring breakfasts and wishing you could score more runs?!?

Kennys: That is literally what we were just saying.

Brian: Try HIT CLUSTER CEREAL! A joint venture of the Minnesota Twins, General Mills, and Malt o Meal! The official Cluster-Based Cereal of the Minnesota Twins!!

Byron: Do we have an Official Non-Cluster-Based Cereal?

Brian: Don't change the subject Rookie!! HIT CLUSTER CEREAL contains all the valuable nutrients you need to connect hits together for a big inning!!

[A series of other smiling Twins players appear with the cereal]

Torii Hunter: It's got Single Almonds!

Trevor Plouffe: It's got Double Granola Granules!!

Eddie Rosario: It's got Triple Fiber Flakes!!!

Brian Dozier: Not to mention Home Run Flavor!!!!

Joe Mauer: Sometimes, when I really want to cut loose, I even have some with vitamin rich Milk.

Torii: For the last time Joe, don't flaunt your decadent party life style in front of the kids!

Joe: Sorry...

Brian: C'mon Guys! Try a bite!!

Kennys: Wow! That taste sure comes through in the clutch!

[All the Twins Laugh heartily before the final Voice Over]

VOICE OVER: Hit Cluster Cereal is available for a limited time only, and is part of a balanced breakfast with other great Official Minnesota Twins foodstuffs like "Base on Balls Bread" and "Orange (You Glad We're Facing White Sox Pitchers) Juice"

Torii Hunter Teaches the Little Things

There's been a lot of cyber ink spilled over the ejection, tirade and now suspension of Torii Hunter for arguing balls and strikes on Wednesday. Rather than debate the justifications for it, or weigh in on the great "inspiration"/"childishness" debate, we'd like to imagine how this little event will affect future Twins franchises.

We take you now to a tape room in the Twins' Fort Myers training compound, some March day in the not-so-distant future. A crew of young prospects, chatter anxiously awaiting the appearance of the franchise legend who will address them today. A hush falls as he enters the room, but the nerves are set at ease when he flashes his trademark mega-watt smile:

"Hey guys! What's happenin'"

"Good morning, Mr. Hunter," they squeak in unison.

Unphased, Hunter sits backwards on a chair, "listen y'all, you can relax. This isn't a big talking too. I'm not gonna lecture you, we just want to go over some of the finer points of your game.

"You've been coming along nicely for a little while now. I know one of you led the Midwest league in homers, and I saw another one hit 97 on the gun yesterday. Real good, man, real good. But to make it to the bigs you've got to know how to lose your cool properly....

"I mean, I've seen the tapes of you guys when you're upset, groanin' and shakin' your heads. That doesn't do anything man! You gotta get wild! You gotta make a point! So let's look at the tape here.



"First, ya gotta start with the little things, light weight stuff, elbow guards, wrist guards, you know, easy stuff. Warm yourself up! You there, McGillacuddy, you're a big fella, but if you start chuckin' the bat and the helmet and everything right away you could strain a forearm, a muscle, how's the manager gonna feel if you have to rest a day because you couldn't be bothered to warm up first?"

"Uhh...not very good..."

"Your damn right not very good!

"Now secondly, don't lose track of your point in this, everything you throw you have to punctuate with another yell, turn back to the ump, the crew chief especially, because that's the umps boss, let him know that it's a protest, it's not a performance, it's a political statement. Yes Diaz?"

"What should we say to them? Should we reemphasize the rule with references to the section and subsect--"

"Nah, they can't think logically about it at that point, just say what's in your heart...let the coaches and the lawyers talk specifics, you do you man, you do you.

"Alright, finally gentlemen, the climax: the jersey toss. Now some might say it's over the top, some might say it's foolish, but this is a special move. It's the point of no return, and think about it, if you want to continue to emphasize your protest what else could you throw?"

"Your shoe?"

"No, Moskowitz, that's a protest common to Iraq and the Arab Peninsula. Do we play on the Arab Peninsula?"

"No, sir"

"That's right, the Bagdad expansion franchise isn't coming in for another three years. Who else?"

"Your belt?"

"Your belt? Stop for a second a think there, Henderson, how exactly is a little ol' Minnesotan lady in the stands gonna feel if you start strippin' down out there?"

"Oh yeah..."

"What about equipment from the dug out?"

"Not a bad idea, Van Nostren! But that's a little played out, and remember you've got teammates and fellow pros out there, don't want to risk anybody's safety. That's why I recommend the shirt toss, it's soft, it's light, it flutters down beautifully after a long throw, its arc and trajectory gives you more time to shout at the umps, it's perfect."

A tentative hand rises from the front row, "But Mr. Hunter--"

"Yeah?"

"Sir, I was just wondering, wouldn't it be safer not to say anything at all and just file an appeal after the game..."

Torii blinks, and stares back at the player. "What's your name, son?"

"Uhhh...Middlecamp"

"Uh-huh, Middlecamp....well you're not on my sheet here, son, I think you might be looking for Joe Mauer's Seminar on Increasing your Midwestern-ness, that's room 203 not 302..."

"Oh, I'm sorry, sir," says Middlecamp, gathering his belongings and heading for the door.

"Its okay, man, its okay, it may be helpful some day. Now the rest of you, let's talk about how much to tip the batboy after he picks up the stuff..."

*AND SCENE*

Cliff Notes for the 2015 Twins: Chapter 2 "May"

Like my very own students, I'm slow in posting, but by god, I will always deliver these cliff notes...unless I go crazy grading student papers first.

Chapter 2: "May"

Plot Summary:

Just as Twins fans prepared themselves to see the silver lining at the end of April reform into a thunderhead of injuries, incompetence and ineffectiveness, something happened that had not happened for a long time in Minnesota.

The silver lining got brighter.

And brighter.

And brighter.

So bright in fact, that it was hard to see the clouds any more. They opened the month with four straight wins, and after one loss...four more straight wins. They took a series from Oakland, and Cleveland, but surely the Eastern Division would be our downfall...nope: two of three from Tampa, three straight from Boston, and two of three from Toronto.

A chatter filled the air: delight, surprise, disbelief. Are they for real? Fans asked on the rooftops of local bars and restaurants. Can they keep this up? Supporters questioned over cubicle walls and in carpools. How the hell are they doing this? Minnesotans pretended not to wonder, even as cable pundits bellowed it louder than any member of "Twins Territory" ever could.

There was effective hitting to be sure, and consistently strong relief pitching, even simple competence from the starting pitchers was so deeply appreciated it might have been treated like the second coming of Walter Johnson himself. But above all else, there was confidence. There was consistency. And there were wins.

Sure, it might not last, but it was warm, it was joyous, and the silver lining was so bright, you had to wear shades.

Main Character Development:

Would that we could say that it was all about Trevor May in the month of May, but it wasn't.

First, there was the human exclamation mark: Ricky Nolasco! Without Nolasco in the rotation, things seemed to be fine in April, and few if any were gung ho about his return. He has earned as little trust from Twins fans as Scott Boras. And yet, without making much fuss (or exploding in his characteristic exclamatory twitter jamboree) Ricky racked up 26 strike outs in his 6 outings. Did he average more than 5 innings in those appearances...No. But 26 strikeouts! And only 6 walks! He bested Phil Hughes!! He made me love the exclamation mark again!!! UNIRONICALLY!!!

Then there was another, oft debated, warily embraced Twin who returned this year, albeit from other cities rather than the disabled list: Torii Hunter. And while April gave us plenty of stories about Torii the "character" (the leader, the mentor, the clubhouse general, etc.) his actual play in the field was fine but often forgotten. Then he became less of the wise old sage, and more of the totally dangerous Jedi-Master: Torii-Wan-Kenobi. The kind of man who can duel a foe and come out stronger. Can he defend fully? Probably not. But as long as that swing still sings, all manner of things can be forgiven.

Key Quote/Stat Explained:

2 Outs/RISP & BAbip
You'll often hear people say that there's no such thing as "clutch." You can't measure talent under pressure because players are still players, some times they hit, sometimes they don't, some times it rains.

But, as with everything else people say doesn't exist (Sasquatch, the Loch Ness Monster, a Josh Duhamel movie that doesn't stink), once you say it, people are determined to prove you wrong. Hence: the "Clutch" Sections on baseball-reference.

This is where Baseball-Reference stat-heads compile the splits to cover how players and teams perform in key situations that we often refer to as "clutch", situations like: 2 outs and runners in scoring position, and when we see that BAbip (or Batting Average on Balls in Play, aka how often the Twins hit the ball rather than striking out or walking) we see a surprising .320 from the team.

That would be a clutch number. It would mean that when the Twins have a chance to score a run with a hit in a critical situation, they're doing it about a third of time they put the ball in play. That's mighty good.

But it's also a pretty terrible strategy to say "let's get guys in scoring position, and then get two outs because we do really well in those situations!" and BAbip is subject to lots of variables, not just hitters' strengths (i.e. opponents' fielding, pitcher fatigue, etc.).

So why bring it up? Well, like quotes in literature, this can be read two ways. If you have a friend who says "the Twins keep getting hits when it matters", you have to admit they are right. If your friend assumes that means the Twins are going to win the World Series...well...probably not.

Literary Term to Impress English Majors:

Perhaps you've noticed, but while there's a lot of sunshine and silver linings and players defying expectations and "clutch hitting", I'm not entirely on board. Nor for that matter are national writers, local writers, local bloggers, and pretty much anyone who isn't immediate family to the Twins staff themselves.

I want it to be true, oh-sweet-lord-have-mercy! I want it to be true! I want Ricky Nolasco to keep the pitching going and get his arm stronger. I want Torii Hunter to keep hitting and finding his fielding form of old. I want "Clutch" to be real, and for the Twins to bottle it, and sell it to fans for a reasonable price so I can come up big when it matters most in my job. But I have enough experience with literature to know that it's not always that simple.

That's where the unreliable narrator comes in.


An unreliable narrator is someone whose story telling, just doesn't add up. There are contradictions within the action, there are obvious omissions, there are attempts to gloss over somethings that matter and over emphasize things that don't.

There's not necessarily anything malicious in an unreliable narrator. They can be solely interested in undermining the system, or making you laugh, or challenging your preconceptions. They can be tremendously entertaining and enjoyable: Forrest Gump was an unreliable narrator, so was Ted Mosby from "How I Met Your Mother".

If the Twins are telling the story of 2015 to their fans, they may be unreliable narrators. But after a tremendous May,

I'm happy to keep listening.

The Battle over Torii Hunter

He's back. Torii Hunter is back, and in the 7 hours of his official presence in a Twins line-up again there are two clear camps in response to his return.


In the blue corner, weighing in at 140 characters, 140,000 grey hairs in the last four seasons and 140 million liters of digital ink are the analytically minded, podcast savvy, SABR-metrical, writers, critics and yes...fans who wonder what the heck the Pohlad's were thinking.

"This is not the Torii Hunter we fell in love with," they remind readers, listeners, viewers and random passers-by.

He is not the defensive wunderkind we saw steal homers from Barry Bonds, he's not even the workman-like defender we saw handle Eduardo Escobar pop outs in Anaheim and Detroit. He has struggled lately, and one thing the Twins outfield does not want for is corner outfielders who struggle defensively (see: Arcia, Oswaldo; Willingham, Josh; Nunez, Eduardo Freaking)

The Torii we came to know and love was prone to gaps in his approach at the plate, always good but never quite great. While that also changed in the years he was away, 39 year-old Torii may not be able to maintain that production. And as younger talents vie for playing time, the curious sight of an aging corner outfielder with declining production and defensive value getting constant playing time and clinging to his no-trade clause becomes all the more questionable.

This is not the mega-watt smiling, do-no-wrong, clubhouse hero either. One afternoon worth of press coverage seemed to confirm that. Claiming that "whoever believes in that SABR-metric stuff never played the game" (despite the successful A's GM/former first round draft pick/former Minnesota Twin Billy Beane being a leader in the field) did not allay the fears of the analytically minded writers in the room and at home. Hunter then proceeded to call Mike Bernadino of the Pioneer Press, "a prick" four times, because Bernadino asked about how his opposition to gay marriage may have affected his free agency and may yet affect his leadership. Only Kris Humphries had a shorter honeymoon.

So, says the camp in the blue corner, "this is not the Torii Hunter we fell in love with." Defensively, offensively, socially: it's different now. But there is another side to this.

In the red corner, weighing in at $221 million dollars in revenue, 73,000 household wide television audience, and four straight 90 loss seasons is the Twins front office who wonder "what the heck's the problem?"

Loathe as we writers may be to admit it, the front office can see and know these issues. They may not believe in defensive metrics, but they know a 39-year-old outfielder is going to be less effective than the 32-year-old they last had in uniform. They may not project many stat-lines, but they saw enough of Jim Thome (not to mention Tony Batista, Shannon Stewart, and Dave Winfield) to know that a 39-year-old hitter isn't a 32-year-old hitter. And while Hunter's not keen to talk about his beliefs, the ownership isn't exactly shy about theirs (leading the list of contributors to the anti-gay marriage amendment in 2012).

Heck, they'd probably take mummified
Torii Hunter

The Twins brass knows that this is not the old Torii Hunter, and they do not care, they want this Torii Hunter.

Bear in mind, the Twins are not just in the business of fielding a winning baseball team, they're in the business of making money. To be sure, the best teams make the most money, but even the worst teams can make some.

If you're a business and you know your most loyal customers will come back again and again even when they are dumbstruck and aghast at your decision making, you know that you can make "dumb" and "ghastly" decisions again and again. Their opinion doesn't matter. They'll keep coming--even if only to complain.

What matters is the undecided, the ambivalent, the apathetic customers, ones that you may have lost in the lean years and can bring back (even briefly now). Last year the biggest crowd at Target Field (36,952 to watch the Yankees on July 4th) wouldn't have been in the top 8 home crowds of the 2013 season--when the team was even worse. Sure a great team would solve that problem, but we aren't going to get a great team over night, so let's appreciate what we can have: a beloved local legend on a farewell tour (you saw the crowds for Jeter/Rivera? Torii might only get a tenth of that...but that's a lot better than the Twins have drawn recently).

And even if you don't see this as a cold, callous and calculated business decision, you can appreciate it as a comfortable move at a time of great uncertainty. There's a new manager, a bevy of new talent in the wings, the team is in flux and adding one familiar face, beloved by the front office, admired by the layman fan base, is a way to ease the transition from one regime to the next.

You may not believe the "clubhouse leadership" lines, you may not buy the "mentorship" lines, but what you buy and what you don't is moot now. The Twins bought Torii Hunter 2014, not 2011 or 2007, and they wanted to do that. If it fails, it fails, but if it excites a few absentee fans, if it eases the transition and if it supports the next generation of outfielders, then it's worth it.

Call it Twins Teri-Torii, call him Torii-Wan Kenobi, but above all else, call it what it is. A decision that was made (past tense), as fiercely as we may fight about it, argue about it and debate it, the results won't be known until next spring and summer. (Even then since the arguments are being made in different directions, there not be a winner. Maybe Tori'll be terrible and bring in fans/make the clubhouse brighter, or maybe he'll be great on the field and as insignificant as Jason Bartlett in the annals of Twins reunions gone by. We can all be right, we can all be wrong!)