9.08.2013

The Great Twins Scotch Bet

Kevin Corriea: Determined to Win My Wife a Scotch
At the start of the year my wife (aka Stinky), her father (aka Gouger) and I made a bet. The winner of this bet would win two glasses of scotch (redeemable at any time they chose), the losers would buy said scotch.

The subject of the bet, naturally for a set of Twins fans, was how many games the Twin would win this year, so as we near the end of the season, it seems only right to check our progress and odds of winning the bet. (What else is there to root for this year?)

The Wagers
Stinky: 0-69 Wins
Scruffy: 70-74 Wins
Gouger: 75-81 Wins

Where We Are Now
The Twins stand at 61-80 for a winning percentage of .433. Based on that winning percentage the Twins stand to win 70 games (or 71 if you prefer the science behind predictionmachine.com). The team has 21 games left. which means we're each rooting for the following outcomes.

Stinky: 8-13 or worse wins or less
Scruffy: 9-12 to 13-8
Gouger: 14-7 or better
Gut Feeling
For the time being the math is in my favor. But I'm increasingly hard pressed to see how the Twins can win even 9 games, especially as they face a string of playoff teams. Fielding a team of Rochester's best against the A's and the Rays this week seems like the recipe for an underwhelming week. Maybe they could pull something off against the Angels (if Pedro Hernandez gets his act together) and maybe they can sneak one from the A's...but more than two seems unlikely.

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